Weight loss medications and supplements have long promised to be the Holy Grail for pharmaceutical giants. Over the past few years, GLP-1 manufacturers have developed a range of products that cause rapid weight loss through effective appetite suppression. The impact on individual and societal health is expected to be seismic; the impact on the food and beverage industry could be devastating.
Ozempic’s impact on food sales is already measurable for retailers. As GLP-1 drugs become more widely available and food manufacturers make the necessary adjustments to meet changing consumer appetites, here’s what to expect.
What Are GLP-1 Drugs?
Glucagon-like peptide-1 medications mimic a naturally occurring hormone that regulates blood sugar, appetite, and digestion. GLP-1 drugs were initially focused on treating diabetes by improving glycemic efficacy, but researchers quickly identified the drugs’ additional benefits. Throughout early trials, participants saw lower blood pressure values and, critically, sustained weight reduction without the risk of hypoglycemia.
The most common GLP-1 medications in the US are:
- Ozempic
- Wegovy
- Saxenda
Pharmaceutical companies worldwide are pursuing GLP-1 drug development and human trials.
How Do GLP-1 Drugs Work?
The key to GLP-1 is appetite suppression, but researchers are surprisingly unsure how this result actually occurs in patients. This class of drugs work by introducing semaglutide, which mimics GLP-1, the natural hormone released during digestion. This peptide latches onto the liver to stimulate insulin production, which is why Ozempic is an effective option for those with diabetes.
But that doesn’t explain how GLP-1 reduces appetite.
Researchers looking at data from several manufacturers found that the initial weight loss phase (12-18 months) saw notable caloric restriction compared to the patient baseline; in short, they took in fewer calories on Ozempic than before they started taking it. After the initial phase, caloric intake increased slightly, allowing for a steady weight or “maintenance phase.” This shows that GLP-1 may not suppress appetite uniformly; otherwise, patients would continue to lose weight.
Ozempic Is Changing Consumer Tastes – Literally
How GLP-1 Drugs Affect Cravings
Instead of changing caloric demand through increased metabolism or synthetic satiation, GLP-1 drugs work by changing what patients crave. Study participants noted substantial changes in food preferences. Overall, participants reported an aversion to dairy, starchy, salty, and spicy foods and a reduced appetite for high-fat, non-sweet foods.
Interestingly, the macronutrient profiles of what people ate were nearly identical before and after their GLP-1 trial. There’s also considerable uncertainty on how GLP-1 affects the desire for sweet foods, including sucralose. These variables make forecasting the “Ozempic economy” difficult – but there are real-world indicators that provide valuable insight.
Ozempic and Food Sales, By-the-Numbers
So, how is Ozempic affecting food sales? Several major food and beverage retailers have released data indicating that Ozempic causes consumers to purchase less food, especially sweet food, beverages, and snacks. While the relatively small number of GLP-1 users means the broader impacts are still ahead, many manufacturers are already making adjustments. Producers are ramping up reformulation efforts to support changes like reduced sugar line extensions, smaller portions, and high-protein versions of popular consumer favorites.
Walmart, Ozempic, and Declining Food Sales
In October 2023, Walmart became one of the first national retailers to correlate Ozempic usage data with food sales and changing consumer habits. Based on internal pharmacy and grocery data, Walmart’s study found that Ozempic is negatively affecting Walmart’s food sales. It measured per-unit sales and calories to confirm a long-held belief that patients on GLP-1 drugs buy less food, particularly within the sweets and snack food categories.
Of course, Walmart is positioned to play both sides of the trend. Unlike more traditional grocery retailers, it can leverage its pharmacy business to sell Ozempic and price it competitively. Ozempic costs at Walmart vary slightly by location and dosage, which reflects a regional pricing strategy that could conceivably be adjusted to offset reduced localized food sales.
Morgan Stanley also released its take on Ozempic’s economic impact, forecasting a 4% decline in soft drink, alcohol, and salty snack consumption over the next decade. That’s based on the wider use in the US, with as much as 9% of the population taking some kind of GLP-1 medication by 2035.
Importantly, food and beverage manufacturers are accelerating their plans to implement low—or zero-sugar product lines, smaller packaging sizes, and a shift to emerging markets, where GLP-1 drugs aren’t expected to see widespread use for decades.
How Many Americans Are on Ozempic?
Roughly 6% of US adults are currently on Ozempic or another brand of GLP-1 medication, with roughly half of that number using it specifically for weight loss. It’s worth noting that most adults stay on the medication for less than two years. Most manufacturers advise against taking the medication longer than two years, but those decisions are primarily left to individual healthcare professionals.
The Only Constant Is Change
As always, the food and beverage industry is changing. There’s no doubt the Ozempic era will change how some Americans eat. Still, suppliers and manufacturers have adapted to changing consumer habits for decades, and there’s little chance the industry will be caught flat-footed. Tilley Distribution is committed to supporting our supplier and manufacturing partners with product formulation support, technical expertise, and world-class supply chain capabilities.
See what Tilley can do for you; contact a representative today to get started.
